Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, released its latest joint monthly volatility report with Block Scholes uncovering insights from January’s crypto options trading data.
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The report indicated BTC’s and ETH’s growing influence in the global financial landscape, evidenced by the diminishing historical divide between digital assets and conventional markets. By all accounts, key crypto assets are increasingly moving in tandem with macroeconomic signals. From tariffs to the AI race, the digital asset class is no longer insulated from world affairs. The data suggests that crypto is maturing from financial outlier to market bellwether, marking a fundamental shift for traders navigating this new landscape.
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Key findings:
- Crypto Markets — The New Canary in the Economic Coal Mine: Crypto markets are increasingly functioning as early warning systems for broader market movements. In the eventful first month of 2025, digital assets demonstrated heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic developments, often reacting hours or even days before traditional equity markets. While equity markets were asleep, the always-on crypto markets digested key indicators such as CPI, labor market data, and potential rate hikes or cuts.
- The Weekend Effect: As the convergence between cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets reached new heights in Jan., crypto’s “early warning” feature was exacerbated particularly on weekends. The 24/7 nature of crypto trading has created a unique dynamic where weekend sessions, especially Sundays, have become crucial indicators of market sentiment. Traders saw a pattern of significant Sunday trading activity that consistently foreshadowed Monday market openings.
- Ethereum’s New Dynamics: While ETH and BTC have historically shared similar trajectories in market movements, the past month revealed a more nuanced relationship. During market downturns, ETH was more vulnerable to negative sentiment, consistently outperformed by BTC. However, the trajectories diverged in options markets, pricing ETH’s implied volatility lower than historical patterns would suggest. This disconnect between market expectations and realized performance points to evolving dynamics in how different cryptocurrencies respond to market stress.
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Source: PR Newswire
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